Publications

Peer-reviewed:

116. A. P. S. Munro, T.~House, "Cycles of susceptibility: Immunity debt explains altered infectious disease dynamics post-pandemic," to appear in Clinical Infectious Diseases.

115. A. Dhiman, E. Yom-Tov, L. Pellis, M. Edelstein, R. Pebody, A. Hayward, T. House, T. Finnie, D. Guzman, V. Lampos, I. J. Cox, the Virus Watch Collaborative, "Estimating the household secondary attack rate and serial interval of COVID-19 using social media." Nature Digital Medicine. 7 (2024) 194. [link]

114. K. B. Pouwels, D. W. Eyre, T. House, B. Aspey, P. C. Matthews, N. Stoesser, J. N. Newton, I. Diamond, R. Studley, N. G. H. Taylor, J. I. Bell, J. Farrar, J. Kolenchery, B. D. Marsden, S. Hoosdally, E. Y. Jones, D. I. Stuart, D. W. Crook, T. E. A. Peto, A. S. Walker, the COVID-19 Infection Survey Team "Improving the representativeness of UK’s national COVID-19 Infection Survey through spatio-temporal regression and post-stratification." Nature Communications 15 (2024) 5340. [link] [medRxiv:2023.02.26.23286474]

113. T. Althaus, C. E. Overton, I. Devaux, T. House, A. Lapouze, A. Troel, B. Vanzo, C. Berrin, M. Laroche, A. Bordero, P. Jorgensen, R. Pebody, E. Voiglio, "How effective is the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 transmission and infection? A national programme analysis in Monaco, July 2021 to September 2022." BMC Medicine 22 (2024) 227. [link]

112. E. Dietz, E. Pritchard, K. Pouwels, M. Ehsaan, J. Blake, C. Gaughan, E. Haduli, H. Boothe, K.-D. Vihta, T. Peto, N. Stoesser, P. Matthews, N. Taylor, I. Diamond, R. Studley, E. Rourke, P. Birrell, D. De Angelis, T. Fowler, C. Watson, D. Eyre, T. House, A. S. Walker, "SARS-CoV-2, influenza A/B and respiratory syncytial virus positivity and association with influenza-like illness and self-reported symptoms, over the 2022/23 winter season in the UK: a longitudinal surveillance cohort." BMC Medicine 22 (2024) 143. [link] [medRxiv:2023.10.11.23296866]

111. R. Cahuantzi, K. Lythgoe, I. Hall, T. House, L. Pellis, "Analysis and comprehensive lineage identification for SARS-CoV-2 genomes through scalable learning methods." PNAS 121:12 (2024) e2317284121. [link] [bioRxiv:2022.09.14.507985]

110. M. Ghafari, M. Hall, T. Golubchik, D. Ayoubkhani, T. House, G. MacIntyre-Cockett, H. R. Fryer, L. Thomson, A. Nurtay, S. A. Kemp, L. Ferretti, D. Buck, A. Green, A. Trebes, P. Piazza, L. J. Lonie, R. Studley, E. Rourke, D. Smith, M. Bashton, A. Nelson, M. Crown, C. McCann, G. R. Young , R. A. Nunes dos Santos, Z. Richards, A. Tariq, R. Cahuantzi, Wellcome Sanger Institute COVID-19 Surveillance Team, COVID-19 Infection Survey Group, The COVID-19 9 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, J. Barrett, C. Fraser, D. Bonsall, A. S. Walker, K. Lythgoe, "Prevalence of persistent SARS-CoV-2 in a large community surveillance study." Nature 626 (2024) 1094-1101. [link] [medRxiv:2023.01.29.23285160]

109. J. Curran-Sebastian, L. Pellis, I. Hall, T. House, "Calculation of Epidemic First Passage and Peak Time Probability Distributions." SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification 12:2 (2024) 242-261. [link] [arXiv:2301.07058]

108. C. L. Little, D. M. Schultz, T. House, W. G. Dixon, J. McBeth, "Identifying Weekly Trajectories of Pain Severity Using Daily Data from a Mobile Health Study: A Cluster Analysis." JMIR mHealth and uHealth. 12 (2024) e48582. [link]

107. F. Pagani, A. Chevallier, S. Power, T. House, S. Cotter, "NuZZ: Numerical ZigZag Sampling for General Models." Statistics and Computing. 34 (2024) 61. [link] [arXiv:2003.03636]

106. H. R. Fryer, T. Golubchik, M. Hall, C. Fraser, R. Hinch, L. Ferretti, L. Thomson, A. Nurtay, L. Pellis, T. House, G. MacIntyre-Cockett, A. Trebes, D. Buck, P. Piazza, A. Green, L. J. Lonie, D. Smith, M. Bashton, M. Crown, A. Nelson, C. M. McCann, M. A. Tariq, C. J. Elstob, R. N. Dos Santos, Z. Richards, X. Xhang, J. Hawley, M. R. Lee, P. Carrillo-Barragan, I. Chapman, S. Harthern-Flint, The COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium, D. Bonsall, K. A. Lythgoe, "Viral burden is associated with age, vaccination, and viral variant in a population-representative study of SARS-CoV-2 that accounts for time-since-infection-related sampling bias." PLOS Pathogens 19:8 (2023) e1011461. [link]

105. M. Fyles, K.-D. Vihta, C. H. Sudre, H. Long, R. Das, C. Jay, T. Wingfield, F. Cumming, W. Green, P. Hadjipantelis, J. Kirk, C. J. Steves, S. Ourselin, G. Medley, E. Fearon, T. House, "Diversity of symptom phenotypes in SARS-CoV-2 community infections observed in multiple large datasets." Scientific Reports 13 (2023) 21705. [link] [arXiv:2111.05728]

104. K. A. Lythgoe, T. Golubchik, M. Hall, T. House, R. Cahuantzi, G. MacIntyre-Cockett, H. Fryer, L. Thomson, A. Nurtay, M. Ghafani, D. Buck, A. Green, A. Trebes, P. Piazza, L. J. Lonie, R. Studley, E. Rourke, D. Cook, D. Smith, M. Bashton, A. Nelson, M. Crown, C. McCann, G. R. Young, R. A. N. dos Santos, Z. Richards, A. Tariq, C. Fraser, I. Diamond, J. Barrett, A. S. Walker, D. Bonsall, Wellcome Sanger Institute COVID-19 Surveillance Team, "Lineage replacement and evolution captured by 3 years of the United Kingdom Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey." Proceedings of the Royal Society B 290 (2023) 2009:20231284. [link] [medRxiv:2022.01.05.21268323]

103. C. L. Little, K. L. Druce, W. G. Dixon, D. M. Schultz, T. House, J. McBeth, "What do people living with chronic pain want from a pain forecast? A research prioritization study." PLOS ONE 18 (2023) 10:e0292968. [link]

102. M. E. P. Silva, R. Skeva, T. House, C. Jay, "Tracking the Structure and Sentiment of Vaccination Discussions on Mumsnet," Social Network Analysis and Mining 13 (2023) 152. [link] [arXiv:2308.13014]

101. M. E. P Silva, M. Fyles, L. Pi, J. Panovska-Griffiths, C. Jay, T. House, E. Fearon, "The role of regular asymptomatic testing in reducing the impact of a COVID-19 wave." Epidemics 44 (2023) 100699. [link] [arXiv:2207.08495]

100. S. P. C. Brand, M. P. C. Cavallaro, F. Cumming, C. Turner, I. Florence, P. Blomquist, J. Hilton, L. M. Guzman Rincon, T. House, D. J. Nokes, M. J. Keeling, "The role of vaccination and public awareness in medium-term forecasts of Mpox incidence in the United Kingdom." Nature Communications 14 (2023) 4100. [link]. Preprint (Version 1) available at Research Square.

99. M. E. P. Silva, R. E. Gaunt, L. Ospina-Forero, C. Jay, T. House, "Comparing directed networks via denoising graphlet distributions." Journal of Complex Networks 11:2 (2023) cnad006. [link] [arXiv:2207.09827]

98. P. S. Cunningham, G. Kitchen, C. Jackson, S. Papachristos, T. Springthorpe, D. van Dellen, J. Gibbs, T. Felton, A. Wilson, J. Bannard-Smith, M. K. Rutter, T. House, P. Dark, T. Augustine, O. E. Akman, A. L. Hazel, J. F. Blaikley, "ClinCirc identifies alterations of the circadian peripheral oscillator in critical care patients." Journal of Clinical Investigation 133:4 (2023) e162775. [link]

97. R. Das, M. Muldoon, M. Lunt, J. McBeth, B. B. Yimer, T. House, "Modelling and classifying joint trajectories of self-reported mood and pain in a large cohort study." PLOS Digital Health 2:3 e0000204 (2023) [link] [arXiv:2209.15553]

96. L. Pellis, P. J. Birrell, J. Blake, C. E. Overton, F. Scarabel, H. B. Stage, E. Brooks-Pollock, L. Danon, I. Hall, T. House M. J. Keeling, J. M. Read, JUNIPER consortium, D. De Angelis, "Estimation of reproduction numbers in real time: conceptual and statistical challenges." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A 185:Supplement_1 (2022) S112-S130. [link]

95. K.-D. Vihta, K. B. Pouwels, T. Peto, E. Pritchard, D. W. Eyre, T. House, O. Gethings, R. Studley, E. Rourke, D. Cook, I. Diamond, D. Crook, P. C. Matthews, N. Stoesser, A. S. Walker, the COVID-19 Infection Survey team, "Symptoms and SARS-CoV-2 positivity in the general population in the UK." Clinical Infectious Diseases 75:1 (2022) e329–e337. [link] [medRxiv:2021.08.19.21262231.]

94. K.-D. Vihta, K. B. Pouwels, T. E. A. Peto, E. Pritchard, T. House, R. Studley, E. Rourke, D. Cook, I. Diamond, D. Crook, P. C. Matthews, N. Stoesser, D. W. Eyre, A. S. Walker, "Omicron-associated changes in SARS-CoV-2 symptoms in the United Kingdom." Clinical Infectious Diseases 76:3 (2022) e133–e141. [link]

93. K. Wing, D. J. Grint, R. Mathur, H. Gibbs, G. Hickman, E. Nightingale, A. Schultze, H. Forbes, V. Nafilyan, K. Bhaskaran, E. Williamson, T. House, L. Pellis, E. Herrett, N. Gautam, H. J. Curtis, C. T. Rentsch, A. Wong, B. MacKenna, A. Mehrkar, S. Bacon, I. J. Douglas, S. Evans, L. Tomlinson, B. Goldacre, R. M. Eggo, "Association between household composition and severe COVID-19 outcomes in older people by ethnicity: an observational cohort study using the OpenSAFELY platform." International Journal of Epidemiology 51:6 (2022) 1745–1760. [link]

92. B. B. Yimer, D. M. Schultz, A. Beukenhorst, M. Lunt, H. L. Pisaniello, T. House; J. C. Sergeant, J. McBeth, W. G. Dixon, "Heterogeneity in the association between weather and pain severity among patients with chronic pain: a Bayesian multilevel regression analysis." PAIN Reports 7:1 (2022) e963. [link]

91. W. Waites, C. A. B. Pearson, K. M. Gaskell, T. House, L. Pellis, M. Johnson, V. Gould, A. Hunt, N. R. H. Stone, B. Kasstan, T. Chantler, S. Lal, C. H. Roberts, D. Goldblatt, M. Marks, R. M. Eggo, "Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a strictly-Orthodox Jewish community in the UK." Scientific Reports 12 (2022) 8550. [link]

90. A. A. Koch, J. S. Bagnall, N. J. Smyllie, N. Begley, A. D. Adamson, J. L. Fribourgh, D. G. Spiller, Q.-J. Meng, C. L. Partch, K. Strimmer, T. House, M. H. Hastings, A. S. I. Loudon, "Quantification of protein abundance and interaction defines a mechanism for operation of the circadian clock." eLife 11 (2022) e73976. [link]

89. C. E. Overton, L. Pellis, H. B. Stage, F. Scarabel, J. Burton, C. Fraser, I. Hall, T. House, C. Jewell, A. Nurtay, F. Pagani, K. A. Lythgoe, "EpiBeds: Data informed modelling of the COVID-19 hospital burden in England." PLOS Computational Biology 18:9 (2022) e1010406. [link]

88. J. Hilton, H. Riley, L. Pellis, R. Aziza, S. P. C. Brand, I. K. Kombe, J. Ojal, A. Parisi, M. J. Keeling, D. J. Nokes, R Manson-Sawko, T. House, "A computational framework for modelling infectious disease policy based on age and household structure with applications to the COVID-19 pandemic." PLOS Computational Biology 18:9 (2022) e1010390. [link]

87. E. Pritchard, J. Jones, K. . Vihta, N. Stoesser, P. C. Matthews, D. W. Eyre, T. House, J. I. Bell, J. N. Newton, J. Farrar, D. Crook, S. Hopkins, D. Cook, E. Rourke, R. Studley, I. Diamond, T. Peto, K. B. Pouwels, A. S. Walker, "Monitoring populations at increased risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection in the community using population-level demographic and behavioural surveillance." The Lancet Regional Health - Europe 13 (2022) 100282. [link]

86. A. S. Walker, K. D. Vihta, O. Gethings, E. Pritchard, J. Jones, T. House, I. Bell, J. I. Bell, J. N. Newton, J. Farrar, I. Diamond, R. Studley, E. Rourke, J. Hay, S. Hopkins, D. Crook, T. Peto, P. C. Matthews, D. W. Eyre, N. Stoesser, K. B. Pouwels, Covid-19 Infection Survey Team. "Tracking the Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha Variant in the United Kingdom." New England Journal of Medicine 385:27 (2021) 2582-2585. [link]

85. T. House, H. Riley, L. Pellis, K. B. Pouwels, S. Bacon, A. Eidukas, K. Jahanshahi, R. M. Eggo, A. S. Walker, "Inferring Risks of Coronavirus Transmission from Community Household Data." Statistical Methods in Medical Research 31:9 (2022) 1738-1756. [link] [arXiv:2104.04605]

84. L. Dyson, E. M. Hill, S. Moore, J. Curran-Sebastian, M. J. Tildesley, K. A. Lythgoe, T. House, L. Pellis, M. J. Keeling, "Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics." Nature Communications 12 (2021) 5730. [link]

83. A. S. Walker, E. Pritchard, T. House, J. V. Robotham, P. J. Birrell, I. Bell, J. I. Bell, J. N. Newton, J. Farrar, I. Diamond, R. Studley, J. Hay, K.-D. Vihta, T. Peto, N. Stoesser, P. C. Matthews, D. W. Eyre, K. B. Pouwels, the COVID-19 Infection Survey team, "Ct threshold values, a proxy for viral load in community SARS-CoV-2 cases, demonstrate wide variation across populations and over time." eLife 10 (2021) e64683. [link]

82. B. Vekaria, C. E. Overton, A. Wiśniowski, S. Ahmad, A. Aparicio-Castro, J. Curran-Sebastian, J. Eddleston, N. A. Hanley, T. House, J. Kim, W. Olsen, M. Pampaka, L. Pellis, D. Perez Ruiz, J. Schofield, N. Shryane, M. J. Elliot "Hospital length of stay for COVID-19 patients: Data-driven methods for forward planning." BMC Infectious Diseases 21 (2021) 700. [link]

81. E. Pritchard, P. C. Matthews, N. Stoesser, D. W. Eyre, O. Gethings, K.-D. Vihta, J. Jones, T. House, H. VanSteenHouse, I. Bell, J. I. Bell, J. N. Newton, J. Farrar, I. Diamond, E. Rourke, R. Studley, D. Crook, T. Peto, A. S. Walker, K. B. Pouwels, Coronavirus Infection Survey team "Impact of vaccination on new SARS-CoV-2 infections in the UK." Nature Medicine 27 (2021) 1370-1378. [link]

80. R. W. Eyre, T. House, F. X. Gómez-Olivé and F. E. Griffiths, "Bayesian belief network modelling of household food security in rural South Africa." BMC Public Health 21 (2021) 935. [link]

79. M. Fyles, E. Fearon, C. Overton, University of Manchester COVID-19 Modelling Group, T. Wingfield, G. F. Medley, I. Hall, L. Pellis, T. House, "Using a household structured branching process to analyse contact tracing in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. 376 (2021) 20200267. [link]

78. L. Pellis, F. Scarabel, H. B. Stage, C. E. Overton, L. H. K. Chappell, K. A. Lythgoe, E. Fearon, E. Bennett, J. Curran-Sebastian, R. Das, M. Fyles, H. Lewkowicz, X. Pang, B. Vekaria, L. Webb, T. House, I. Hall, "Challenges in control of Covid-19: short doubling time and long delay to effect of interventions." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. 376 (2021) 20200264. [link]

77. I. Hall, L. Pellis, T. House, H. Lewkowicz, J. Sedgwick, N. Gent, "Rapid increase of Care Homes reporting outbreaks a sign of eventual substantial disease burden." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. 376 (2021) 20200269. [link]

76. E. Brooks-Pollock, J. M. Read, T. House, G. F. Medley, M. J. Keeling, L. Danon, "The Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) of cases due to gatherings and groups with relevance to COVID-19 mitigation strategies." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. 376 (2021) 20200273. [link]

75. K. B. Pouwels, T. House, E. Pritchard, J. V. Robotham, P. J. Birrell, A. Gelman, K.-D. Vihta, N. Bowers, I. Boreham, H. Thomas, J. Lewis, I. Bell, J. I. Bell, J. N. Newton, J. Farrar, I. Diamond, P. Benton, A. S. Walker, COVID-19 Infection Survey team, "Community prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in England during April to September 2020: Results from the ONS Coronavirus Infection Survey." The Lancet Public Health 6:1 (2021) e30-e38. [link]

74. R. N. Thompson, T. D. Hollingsworth, V. Isham, D. Arribas-Bel, B. Ashby, T. Britton, P. Challoner, L. H. K. Chappell, H. Clapham, N. J. Cunniffe, A. P. Dawid, C. A. Donnelly, R. Eggo, S. Funk, N. Gilbert, J. R. Gog, P. Glendinning, W. S. Hart, H. Heesterbeek, T. House, M. Keeling, I. Z. Kiss, M. Kretzschmar, A. L. Lloyd, E. S. McBryde, J. M. McCaw, J. C. Miller, T. J. McKinley, M. Morris, P. D. O'Neill, C. A. B. Pearson, K. V. Parag, L. Pellis, J. R. C. Pulliam, J. V. Ross, M. J. Tildesley, G. Scalia Tomba, B. W. Silverman, C. J. Struchiner, P. Trapman, C. R. Webb, D. Mollison, O. Restif, "Key Questions for Modelling COVID-19 Exit Strategies." Proceedings of the Royal Society B 287 (2020) 20201405. [link] [arXiv:2006.13012]

73. C. E. Overton, H. B. Stage, S. Ahmad, J. Curran-Sebastian, P. Dark, R. Das, E. Fearon, T. Felton, M. Fyles, N. Gent, I. Hall, T. House, H. Lewkowicz, X. Pang, L. Pellis, R. Sawko, A. Ustianowski, B. Vekaria, L. Webb, "Using statistics and mathematical modelling to understand infectious disease outbreaks: COVID-19 as an example." Infectious Disease Modelling 5 (2020) 409-41 [link] [arXiv:2005.04937]

72. A. Alahmadi, S. Belet, A. Black, D. Cromer, J. Flegg, T. House, P. Jayasundara, J. Keith, J. McCaw, R. Moss, J. Ross, F. Shearer, S. T. T. Tun, J. Walker, L. White, J. Whyte, A. Yan, A. Zarebski, "Influencing public health policy with data-informed mathematical models of infectious diseases: Recent developments and new challenges." Epidemics 32 (2020) 100393. [link]

71. D. Schultz, A. Beukenhorst, B. Yimer, L. Cook, H. Pisaniello, T. House, C. Gamble, J. Sergeant, J. McBeth and W. Dixon, "Weather Patterns Associated With Pain In Chronic-Pain Sufferers," Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101:5 (2020) E555–E566. [link]

70. W. Dixon, D. Schultz, A. Beukenhorst, B. Yimer, L. Cook, A. Gasparrini, T. El-Hay, B. Hellman, B. James, A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera, M. Maclure, R. Silva, J. Ainsworth, H. Pisaniello, T. House, M. Lunt, C. Gamble, C. Sanders, J. Sergeant, and J. McBeth, "How the Weather Affects the Pain of Citizen Scientists Using a Smartphone App," npj Digital Medicine 2:105 (2019). [link]

69. E. M. Hill and T. House, "Modelling the spread of mood," in B. Breidenbach and T. Docherty (eds), Mood: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, New Theories (2019). Routledge, pp. 87-108. [link]

68. A. Bishop, I. Z. Kiss and T. House, "Consistent Approximation of Epidemic Dynamics on Degree-heterogeneous Clustered Networks," Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Complex Networks and Their Applications 1 (2018) 376-391. [link] [arXiv:1810.06066]

67. M. Baguelin, E. Buckingham-Jeffery, I. M. Hall, T. House, T. M. Kinyanjui and L. Pellis "Epidemiological Data and Model Requirements to Support Policy," Proceedings of the ACM SIGKDD Workshop on Epidemiology meets Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery (epiDAMIK) (2018) 45-49. [link] [PDF]

66. E. M. Hill, T. House, M. S. Dhingra, W. Kalpravidh, S. Morzaria, M. G. Osmani, E. Brum, M. Yamage, Md. A. Kalam, D. J. Prosser, J. Y. Takekawa, X. Xiao, M. Gilbert, M. J..Tildesley, "The impact of surveillance and control on highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry in Dhaka division, Bangladesh." PLOS Computational Biology 14:9 (2018) e1006439. [link]

65. R. W. Eyre, T. House, F. X. Gómez-Olivé and F. E. Griffiths, "Modeling fertility in rural South Africa with combined nonlinear parametric and semi-parametric methods," Emerging Themes in Epidemiology 15:5 (2018). [link] [ReadCube]

64. T. M. Kinyanjui, J. Middleton, S. Güttel, J. A. Cassell, J. V. Ross and T. House, "Scabies in residential care homes: Modelling, inference and interventions for well-connected population sub-units," PLOS Computational Biology 14:3 (2018) e1006046. [link]

63. E. Buckingham-Jeffery, T. House and V. Isham, "Gaussian process approximations for fast inference from infectious disease data," Mathematical Biosciences 301 (2018) 111-120. [link]

62. G. Brightwell T. House, M. Luczak, "Extinction times in the subcritical stochastic SIS logistic epidemic," Journal of Mathematical Biology 77:2 (2018) 455-493. [link] [ReadCube] [arXiv:1312.7449]

61. R. W. Eyre, T. House, E. M. Hill and F. E. Griffiths, "Spreading of components of mood in adolescent social networks," Royal Society Open Science 4:9 (2017) 170336. [link]

60. D. A. Sprague and T. House, "Evidence for complex contagion models of social contagion from observational data," PLOS ONE 12:7 (2017) e0180802. [link]

59. E. Buckingham-Jeffery, R. Morbey, T. House, A. J. Elliot, S. Harcourt, and Gillian E. Smith, "Correcting for day of the week and public holiday effects: improving a national daily syndromic surveillance service for detecting public health threats," BMC Public Health 17:1 (2017) 477. [link]

58. E. M. Hill, T. House, M. S. Dhingra, W. Kalpravidh, S. Mozaria, M. G. Osmani, M. Yamage, X. Xiao, M. Gilbert and M. J. Tildesley, "Modelling H5N1 in Bangladesh across spatial scales: model complexity and zoonotic transmission risk," Epidemics 20 (2017) 37-55. [link]

57. E. M. Hill, M. J. Tildesley and T. House, "Evidence for history-dependence of influenza pandemic emergence," Scientific Reports 7:43623 (2017). [link]

56. F. Ball and T. House, "Heterogeneous network epidemics: real-time growth, variance and extinction of infection," Journal of Mathematical Biology 75:3 (2017) 577-619. [link] [arXiv:1601.07415]

55. M. J. Keeling, T. House, A. J. Cooper, and L. Pellis, "Systematic Approximations to Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible Dynamics on Networks," PLoS Computational Biology 12:12 (2016) e1005296. [link]

54. C. Parra-Rojas, T. House, and A. J. McKane, "Stochastic epidemic dynamics on extremely heterogeneous networks," Physical Review E 94:062408 (2016). [link] [arXiv:1609.08450]

53. T. House, A. Ford, S. Lan, S. Bilson, E. Buckingham-Jeffery, and M. Girolami, "Bayesian uncertainty quantification for transmissibility of influenza, norovirus and Ebola using information geometry," Journal of the Royal Society Interface 13:20160279 (2016). [link]

52. S. Janson, M. Luczak, P. Windridge and T. House, "Near-critical SIR epidemic on a random graph with given degrees," Journal of Mathematical Biology 74:4 (2017) 843-886. [link] [arXiv:1501.05798]

51. D. Sprague, C. Jeffery, N. Crossland, W. Vargas, T. House, G. O. Roberts, J. Ouma, S. Lwanga, J. Valadez, "Assessing delivery practices of mothers over time and over space in Uganda, 2003-2012," Emerging Themes in Epidemiology 13:9 (2016) [link]

50. T. M. Kinyanjui, L. Pellis, T. House, "Information content of household-stratified epidemics," Epidemics 16 (2016) 17-26. [link]

49. T. House, J. M. Read, L. Danon and M. J. Keeling, "Testing the hypothesis of preferential attachment in social network formation," EPJ Data Science 4:13 (2015). [link]

48. T. M. Kinyanjui, T. House, M. K. Kiti, P. A. Cane, D. J. Nokes and G. F. Medley, "Vaccine induced herd immunity for control of Respiratory Syncytial Virus disease," PLoS ONE 10:9 (2015) e0138018. [link]

47. E. Hill, F. E. Griffiths, T. House, "Spreading of healthy mood in adolescent social networks," Proceedings of the Royal Society B. 282 (2015) 20151180. [link]

46. L. Pellis, T. House and M. J. Keeling, "Exact and approximate moment closures for non-Markovian network epidemics An analysis of the open triplet and closed triangle," Journal of Theoretical Biology. 382 (2015) 160–177. [link] [arXiv:1505.03354]

45. L. Pellis, S. E. F. Spencer and T. House, "Real-time growth rate for general stochastic SIR epidemics on unclustered networks," Mathematical Biosciences 265 (2015) 65-81. [link] [arXiv:1501.04824]

44. H. Heesterbeek, R. M. Anderson, V. Andreasen, S. Bansal, D. De Angelis, C. Dye, K. T. D. Eames, W. J. Edmunds, S. D. W. Frost, S. Funk, T. D. Hollingsworth, T. House, V. Isham, P. Klepac, J. Lessler, J. O. Lloyd-Smith, C. J. E. Metcalf, D. Mollison, L. Pellis, J. R. C. Pulliam, M. G. Roberts, C. Viboud, and Isaac Newton Institute IDD Collaboration, "Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health," Science 347:6227 (2015) aaa4339. [link]

43. D. De Angelis, A. M. Presanis, P. J. Birrell, G. Scalia Tomba, T. House, "Four key challenges in infectious disease modelling using data from multiple sources," Epidemics 10 (2015) 83-87. [link]

42. T. House, "Epidemiological dynamics of Ebola outbreaks," eLife (2014) 10.7554/eLife.03908. [link]

41. F. Ball, T. Britton, T. House, V. Isham, D. Mollison, L. Pellis, G. Scalia-Tomba, "Seven challenges for metapopulation models of epidemics, including households models," Epidemics 10 (2015) 63-67. [link]

40. L. Pellis, F. Ball, S. Bansal, K. Eames, T. House, V. Isham, P. Trapman, "Eight challenges for network epidemic models," Epidemics 10 (2015) 58–62. [link]

39. P. A. Hancock, Y. Rehman, I. M. Hall, O. Edeghere, L. Danon, T. House and M. J. Keeling, "Strategies for controlling non-transmissible infection outbreaks using a large human movement data set," PLoS Computational Biology 10:9 (2014) e1003809. [link]

38. T. Britton, T. House, A. L. Lloyd, D. Mollison, S. Riley, P. Trapman, "Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission," Epidemics 10 (2015) 54–57. [link]

37. A. Black, T. House, M. J. Keeling and J. V. Ross, "The effect of clumped population structure on the variability of spreading dynamics," Journal of Theoretical Biology 359 (2014) 45-53. [link] [preprint].

36. T. House, "Algebraic moment closure for population dynamics on discrete structures," Bulletin of Mathematical Biology. 77:4 (2015) 646-659. [link] [arXiv:1405.4024]

35. T. House, "For principled model fitting in mathematical biology," Journal of Mathematical Biology 70:5 (2014) 1007-1013. [link] [arXiv:1404.5324]

34. T. House, “Heterogeneous clustered random graphs,” EPL 105 (2014) 68006. [link]

33. T. House, “Non-Markovian stochastic epidemics in extremely heterogeneous populations,” Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena 9:2 (2014) 153-160. [link] [arXiv:1403.2878]

32. M. Ritchie, L, Berthouze, T. House and I. Z. Kiss, "Higher-order structure and epidemic dynamics in clustered networks," Journal of Theoretical Biology 348 (2014) 21-32. [link] (open access)

31. C. I. Del Genio and T. House, "Endemic infections are always possible on regular networks," Physical Review E. 88 (2013) 040801(R). [link] [arXiv:1310.3128]

30. L. Danon, J. M. Read, T. House, M. C. Vernon and M. J. Keeling, "Social encounter networks: characterising Great Britain," Proceedings of the Royal Society B 280:1765 (2013) 20131037. [link]

29. N. J. Inglis, H. Bagnall, K. Janmohamed, S. Suleman, A. Awofisayo, V. De Souza, E. Smit, R. Pebody, H. Mohamed, S. Ibbotson, G. E. Smith, T. House, B. Olowokure, “Measuring the effect of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09: the epidemiological experience in the West Midlands, England during the ‘containment’ phase,” Epidemiology and Infection (2013). [link]

28. M. Graham and T. House, "Dynamics of stochastic epidemics on heterogeneous networks," Journal of Mathematical Biology 68:7 (2014) 1583-1605. [link] [arXiv:1304.4763]

27. C. A. Rhodes and T. House, "The rate of convergence to early asymptotic behaviour in age-structured epidemic models," Theoretical Population Biology 85 (2013) 58-62. [link] [arXiv:1303.4201]

26. A. Black, T. House, M.J Keeling, and J. V. Ross, "Epidemiological consequences of household-based antiviral prophylaxis for pandemic influenza," Journal of the Royal Society Interface 10:81 (2013) 20121019. [link]

25. T. House, J. V. Ross and D. Sirl, "How big is an outbreak likely to be? Methods for epidemic final-size calculation," Proceedings of the Royal Society A 469:2150 (2013) 20120436. [link] [supplementary code]

24. T. House, N. Inglis, J. V. Ross, F. Wilson, S. Suleman, O. Edeghere, G. Smith, B. Olowokure and M. J. Keeling, "Estimation of outbreak severity and transmissibility: Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in households," BMC Medicine 10:117 (2012). [link] See also the Commentary on this article.

23. L. Danon, T. House, J. M. Read and M. J. Keeling, "Social encounter networks: collective properties and disease transmission," Journal of the Royal Society Interface 9:76 (2012) 2826-2833. [link]

22. A. J. Sutton, T. House, V. D. Hope, F. Ncube, L. Wiessing and M. Kretzschmar, "Modelling HIV in the injecting drug user population and the male homosexual population in a developed country context," Epidemics. 4:1 (2012) 48-56. [link]

21. T. House, "Lie algebra solution of population models based on time-inhomogeneous Markov chains," Journal of Applied Probability. 49:2 (2012) 472-481. [link] [arXiv:1111.5533].

20. T. House, "Modelling Epidemics on Networks," Contemporary Physics. 53:3 (2012) 213-225. [link] [arXiv:1111.4875].

19. M. Taylor, P. L. Simon, D. M. Green, T. House and I. Z. Kiss, "From Markovian to pairwise epidemic models and the performance of moment closure approximations," Journal of Mathematical Biology. 64:6 (2012) 1021-1042. [link] [Preprint version]

18. T. House, "Modelling behavioural contagion," Journal of the Royal Society Interface 8:59 (2011) 909-912. [link] [Preprint version]

17. T. House, M. Baguelin, A. J. van Hoek, P. J. White, Z. Sadique, K. Eames, J. M. Read, N. Hens, A. Melegaro, W. J. Edmunds and M. J. Keeling, "Modelling the impact of local reactive school closures on critical care provision during an influenza pandemic," Proceedings of the Royal Society B 278:1719 (2011) 2753-2760. [link]

16. L. Danon, A. P. Ford, T. House, C. P. Jewell, M. J. Keeling, G. O. Roberts, J. V. Ross and M. C. Vernon, "Networks and the Epidemiology of Infectious Disease," (2011) Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases 2011:284909 special issue "Network Perspectives on Infectious Disease Dynamics". [link] [arXiv:1011.5950]

15. T. House and M. J. Keeling, "Epidemic prediction and control in clustered populations," Journal of Theoretical Biology ***272*:1 (2011) 1-7. [link] [arXiv:1012.1974].

14. T. House and M. J. Keeling, "Insights from unifying modern approximations to infections on networks," Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 8:54 (2011) 67-73. [link]

13. T. House, "Generalised network clustering and its dynamical implications," Advances in Complex Systems 13:3 (2010) 281-291. [link] [arXiv:1006.4531].

12. M. J. Keeling, L. Danon, M. C. Vernon and T. House, "Individual identity and movement networks for disease metapopulations," PNAS 107:19 (2010) 8866-8870. [link]

11. T. House and M. J. Keeling, "The impact of contact tracing in clustered populations," PLoS Computational Biology 6:3 (2010) e1000721. [link]

10. J. V. Ross, T. House and M. J. Keeling, "Calculation of disease dynamics in a population of households," PLoS ONE 5:3 (2010) e9666. [link]

9. T. House, I. Hall, L. Danon and M. J. Keeling, "Contingency planning for a deliberate release of smallpox in Great Britain - the role of geographical scale and contact structure," BMC Infectious Diseases 10:25 (2010). [link] (open access)

8. M. Tidlesley, T. House, M. Bruhn, R. Curry, M. O'Neill, G. Smith and M. J. Keeling, "The impact of spatial clustering on disease transmission and optimal control," PNAS 107:3 (2010) 1041-1046. [link]

7. L. Danon, T. House and M. J. Keeling, "The role of routine versus random movements on the spread of disease in Great Britain," Epidemics 1:4 (2009) 250-258. [link]

6. T. House, G. Davies, L. Danon and M. J. Keeling, "A motif-based approach to network epidemics," Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 71 (2009) 1693-1706. [link]

5. T. House and M. J. Keeling, "UK household structure and Infectious Disease Transmission," Epidemiology and Infection 137 (2009) 654-661. [link] [PDF]

4. T. House and M. J. Keeling, "Deterministic epidemic models with explicit household structure," Mathematical Biosciences 213 (2008) 29-39. [link] [Preprint version]

3. T. House and E. Palti, "Effective action of (massive) IIA on manifolds with SU(3) structure," Physical Review D 72 (2005) 026004. [link] [arXiv:hep-th/0505177]

2. T. House and A. Micu, "M-Theory compactifications on manifolds with G₂ structure," Classical and Quantum Gravity 22 (2005) 1709-1738. [link] [arXiv:hep-th/0412006]

1. T. House and A. Lukas, "G₂ domain walls in M-theory," Physical Review D 71 (2005) 046006.[link] [arXiv:hep-th/0409114]

Other publications:

(xvi) T. House, L. Pellis, E. Pritchard, A. R. McLean, A. S. Walker, "Total Effect Analysis of Vaccination on Household Transmission in the Office for National Statistics COVID-19 Infection Survey." [arXiv:2107.06545]

(xv) E. Fearon, E. L. Davis, H. B. Stage, I. Hall, L. Pellis, L. Yardley, M. Fyles, R. Das, T. House, T. Wingfield, "Rapid Response: A response to 'Covid-19: government must urgently rethink lateral flow test roll-out': lateral flow testing in contact tracing." [https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n81/rr]

(xiv) J. R. McKenzie, T. House, P. A. Appleby and N. Walton, "Fast Approximate Bayesian Contextual Cold Start Learning." [arXiv:2008.08038]

(xi) J. Middleton, S. L. Walker, T. House, M. G. Head, J. A. Cassel, "Ivermectin for the control of scabies outbreaks in the UK," The Lancet, 394:10214 (2019) 2068-2069. [link]

(x) T. House, "Fast Non-Parametric Estimation of Outbreak Growth from Cumulative Incidence Applied to the Current Ebola Epidemic", bioRχiv (2018). [link]

(ix) E. M. Hill, M. J. Tildesley and T. House, "How predictable are flu pandemics?", Significance 14:6 (2017) 28-33. [link]

(viii) T. House (2017), "Hessian corrections to Hybrid Monte Carlo". [arXiv:1702.08251]

(vii) T. House, "A general theory of early growth? Comment on: 'Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A review' by Gerardo Chowell et al." Physics of Life Reviews [link]

(vi) T. House (2015), "Hessian corrections to the Metropolis Adjusted Langevin Algorithm". [arXiv:1507.06336]

(v) M. J. Keeling, M. Tildesley, T. House and L. Danon, "The Mathematics of Vaccination," Mathematics Today 49:1 (2013) 40-43.

(iv) T. House (2010), "Exact epidemic dynamics for generally clustered, complex networks". [arXiv:1006.3483]

(iii) T. House et. al. (2009), "Can Reactive School Closures help critical care provision during the current influenza pandemic?" PLoS Currents Influenza. [link]

(ii) T. House, G. Davies, L. Danon and M. J. Keeling, "Complex network structure and transmission dynamics," Proceedings of the European Conference on Complex Systems (2009). [link to programme]

(i) T. House, "Aspects of Flux Compactification," DPhil thesis, University of Sussex (2005). [PDF]